COULD ANGST ABOUT TRUMP’S TARIFF POLICIES
(plus other things) SCARE INVESTORS?
We’re Seeing Confidence In The U.S. Dollar Cracking.
The massive bear market in bonds - stable since 2023 - is close to breaking down (interest rates would break above 5%- MUCHO HEADLINES)?
The ability of the mainstream financial media to ignore the gold surge…is WEAKENING:
Trump is doing the best he can to provide reassurance.
The cabinet meeting video is impressive to me in showing a highly competent cabinet and we suspect will provide a certain amount of calm to the financial markets….
However, if you put that cabinet meeting against the review by Phillip Patrick talking with Steve Bannon on the War Room on the various problems the US faces currently, we haven’t even mentioned possible recession and mounting inflation, plus multiple wars and the $36Trillion in government debt.
LINK BANNON'S War Room - Phillip Patrick
Can Trump keep things stable???
We think NOT!
We predict a bear market in both the stock AND bond markets.
Therefore we continue to recommend concentrating your portfolio in the silver miners (see below), and your commodity plays on expecting higher interest rates (i.e. shorting the 30-Year T-Bond and the JGB…AND buying SOFR puts- but from now on buy not December SOFR puts, but extend out to March 95.25 SOFR puts @ $100.
ONCE MORE FOR THE SILVER MINERS
If this coming week we get a drop in the bond market (i.e. an increase in interest rates) then we continue to recommend that our readers consider taking a major (50% or more) concentration in the four silver miners- EXK, CDE, ASM, and AG.
Once again we turn to Alasdair Macleod for reinforcements on why silver is worth considering under current conditions- Macleod sums the ‘Total foreign holdings of US financial assets’ as…(wait for it)…$39Trillion- WOW!
Notice that when in the cabinet video a question was asked about the bond market, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s answer was to mention that the latest Treasury auction went well - which to us compares a mountain (the danger of higher interest rates) to a molehill (the latest auction).
ENERGY NUMBER 2 PICK
BUY PUMP.
While our number one focus is investing in the silver mining industry, investing in the energy industry is emerging as number 2. And Thus PUMP takes its place beside HNRG as our picks in energy….
Longtime readers of our Newsletter will recall an earlier pleasant (i.e. profitable) foray with ProPetro (PUMP @ $5.42)
Here is their profile:
“ProPetro Holding Corp. operates as an integrated oilfield services company. It offers hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and other complementary oilfield completion services to oil and gas producers and non-oil and gas applications, such as general industrial projects and data centers located primarily in Texas and New Mexico. ProPetro Holding Corp. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
PUMP since January has declined from $11 to $4 and currently resides at $5.42. The decline is due to the massive decline in the price of oil. The PUMP decline was highlighted (or should we say ‘lowlighted’) by an extreme decline in oil prices during April and the prospect of substantially higher costs due to Trump’s tariff policies.”
Hence an opportunity. PUMP is now a BUY because:
It provides oil field services to companies drilling for oil or natural gas in the enormous and growing Permian basin in Texas
The company is the technology leader in the Permian which gives it a loyal customer base
PUMP is debt free and has maintained consistent operating cash flow despite recent tough times for the industry
It currently sells for a discount to book value (market cap of $562M compared to $750M of tangible book value)
It is entering an exciting new market of providing electricity to data centers via mobile power plants PUMP News
PUMP is consistently profitable with earnings per share of 24 cents in 2025 and 46 cents in 2026
Thus we recommend a BUY on PUMP @ $5.42. The one caveat we have is that the Yahoo Finance earnings estimates for PUMP look puny for both 2025 and 2026. Fortunately, we will get the Q1 financial report next week on April 29 so we will have more info on how extensive the coming turnaround in PUMP’s business will be in earnings, etc…
WHAT I LEARNED
Michael Oliver excellent sense of why technically silver and silver miners are the place to be:
The Fed resists pressure to “prop up the bond market by buying Treasuries”:
Andy Maguire’s latest, focuses on the acceleration of gold prices so far in April, tied to new sources (insurance companies) of Chinese demand. Maguire thus increased his gold price estimate for the end of 2025 to $4500 per ounce. Plus China’s progress in introducing a digital gold clearing system (Maguire dubs this as “the Digital RMB”) OUTSIDE and faster than the Western SWIFT System and causes ‘rapid de-dollarization’ (Video Below).
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire raises the stakes on his 2025 gold projections, lifting the target to $4,500 per ounce, as China ramps up physical gold acquisition across state banks, pension funds and insurance firms. With Chinese directives set to absorb up to 40% of global supply, bullion banks and major institutions are rushing to revise their forecasts, while BRICS-led de-dollarisation cements gold as the foundation of a rising global trade system.
Schectman on silver’s Suicide pact:
DEAL ON UKRAINE TO BE DONE IN DAYS OR U.S. OUT-Latest reports from The Duran:
CONCLUSION
In addition to the portfolio is our buy on ProPetro (PUMP @ $5.42. We continue to recommend shorting the 30-Year T-Bond, even if we get stopped out 2 or 3 times before what we think will be a significant move to higher interest rates takes place.
We predict that this process to higher interest rates will continue until it forces Congress to pass significant cuts in annual government spending of at least a trillion in spending from $7T to $6T. But since Congress is currently far from passing such a major government spending cut bill, we expect the needed surge in interest in order to panic Congress to doing the right thing will take months.
Recommended Portfolio
Equities: BUY silver mining stocks: STRONG BUY on CDE @ $6.03; STRONG BUY on ASM @ $2.01; STRONG BUY on EXK @ $3.78: and STRONG BUY on AG @ $6.52
Equities: LONG TERM BUY on gold exploration company- DC @ $2.82
Equities: LONG TERM BUY on independent power producer HNRG @ $14.37
Equities: STRONG BUY online nursing school ASPU @ $0.1595
Equities:LONG TERM BUY Florida Bank OptimumBank Holdings (OPHC @ $4.04)
Commodities: SHORT June JGB @ 141.25; BUY Mar 2026 SOFR 95.25 puts @ $100: SHORT Jun NASDAQ @ 18380; SHORT 30 Year T-Bond @ 114 18/32
High Yield: Mortgage investor- NLY @ $17.90 Forward Dividend & Yield 2.80 (15%); Oil and natural gas royalty investor; BSM @ $14.63 Forward Dividend & Yield 1.50 (10.71%)
Our Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just our opinions. Like any speculator we often lose money on positions. We may add any position mentioned in this newsletter and sell any position mentioned in this newsletter at any time. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions may change immediately as soon as we publish, without notice. Please DO NOT make investment decisions based on our newsletter. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this newsletter. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. We did our best to be honest about our disclosures but can’t guarantee we am right. Please do your own due diligence. Thank you!