FROM QUESTION TO UKRAINE, TO GOLD QUESTION
THE 'HISTORICAL' OCCASIONAL SPECULATOR'S VIEWPOINTS
On Mar 2, 2024, at 6:44 AM, a friend asks:
How important do you think US aid to Russia was in Stalin’s defeat of Hitler?
Would the west have been better off had Hitler defeated Russia?
Hi Friend,
US aid to Stalin’s Russia was crucial. I think that without US aid, Russia would have collapsed in the summer of 1942 after the German counteroffensive victory in the Second Battle of Kharkov in May of 1942.
Read Wikipedia Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Kharkov
I have read that after that battle the German advance to Stalingrad was a piece of cake. As Alan Clark in Barbarossa states after the German victory at Kharkov: “…at the beginning of June (1942), while the German armies were reforming for their summer campaign, there were less than two hundred tanks left (to the Russian Army) on the strength of the entire south and southwestern fronts. The numerical ratio, from being five to one in the Russian favor the previous year, had now swung around to nearly ten to one against them.”
(You can find Clark’s book above on Amazon.)
Without US aid, the greatest damage to Russia’s survival would have been transportation, probably and most importantly, the lack of imported US trucks to stabilize military logistics. By contrast, American tanks sent to Russia in 1942 were greatly inferior to what the Russians already had. Without US trucks, I doubt that Russia could have defended Stalingrad, blocked further German advance east to the Urals (Hitler’s final goal), or have held on to the key Russian oil fields at Baku.
Best
Historical Bob
P.S. Let me ponder your second question <grin>
UPDATE ON UKRAINE…an interesting contrast… in 1942 American military aid to Russia prevents Germany from seizing much of Russia versus in 2024 American military aid to Ukraine results in Russia seizing much of Ukraine.
Recent victories by the Russian Army over Ukraine, most notably the capture of Avdiivka causes analysts like The Duran to predict the total defeat of Ukraine by this summer.
Read Wikipedia Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2022%E2%80%932024)
Go check out The Duran through this Link: https://theduran.locals.com/post/5334915/putin-warns-west-missile-strikes-nato-troops-ukr-kerch-bridge-attack-talk-ukr-total-defeat-summer
…AND Blackwater chimes in with calls for an ‘ugly peace’ favoring Russia:
Look at Blackwater Article Here: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/blackwater-founder-erik-prince-ukraine-we-need-bring/
The deteriorating Ukrainian military position has panicked the EU and US to react financially by speaking of seizing Russian assets:
Link the Above Article here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-us-actively-looking-using-213518978.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
Which brings us in turn to Andy Maguire’s recent warning that Russia may answer this financial threat from the West with the ‘Gold weaponized nuclear option’
Could this explain Friday, March 1st’s dramatic surge in the price of gold?
COULD FRIDAY’S GOLD SURGE PRESAGE THE LONG AWAITED (by me at least) BOOM IN THE PRICE (in USD) OF GOLD AND…WAIT FOR IT…SILVER?
ON Friday the market week closed with a dramatic surge in gold.
…and ZeroHedge chimed in re the surge with not one, but two pitches on silver!
Link Here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-03-01/silver-would-explode-fraction-bitcoin-etf-inflows
Link Here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-02-29/silver-next-uranium-rick-rule-explains
CONCLUSION: I have changed by Portfolio recommendations in three ways:
First, BUY EVEN MORE SILVER MINERS- I have concentrated even more of my portfolio in my two favored silver miners: FSM @ $2.91 (up 7% on Friday) and EXK (up 13% on Friday) AND…
Second, BUY JULY SILVER CALLS- I have bought July $30 silver calls @ $750. With July silver having closed at a mere $23.58, the July $30 calls are WAY out of the money but that is why they are so cheap. Should Friday’s action the start of a big bull market and July silver get to $40 then the call would surge from $750 to $50,000!
Third: While I continue to think that long term (i.e. over a year or more) I think Rumble (RUM @ $6.61) is a good buy. I am pulling it from my current recommendations because it remains expensive based on high price-to-book and current slim revenues and losses.
OTHER INTERESTING THINGS I LEARNED THIS WEEK…
I have taken blueberries every day for years to forfend dementia (so far so good) but now am planning to add lime peels based on this article:
Link Here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-02-25/lime-peels-brain-health-oddly-compelling-evidence
Lara Logan exposes on the WarRoom the growing corruption of NGO’s under Biden:
Link Here: https://rumble.com/v4g1dto-episode-3422-the-corruption-of-ngos-fighting-for-all-of-journalism.html
Recommended Portfolio:
1. Equities: Buy silver mining stocks- FSM @ $2.91 and EXK @ $1.67 and PAAS @ $12.89
3. Equities: Buy oil service stocks- RIG @ $5.09
4. Equities: Buy online nursing school ASPU @ $0.20
6. Commodities: Buy July Silver 30 calls @ $750; Short Dec JGB @ 145.32; Buy Jun 2025 SOFR 93.5 puts @ $106; Short Mar NASDAQ @ 18.338.
Our Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. Like any speculator I often lose money on positions. I may add any position mentioned in this newsletter and sell any position mentioned in this newsletter at any time. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions may change immediately as soon as I publish, without notice. Please DO NOT make investment decisions based on my newsletter. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this newsletter. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right. Please do your own due diligence. Thank you!