NOTE ON THE O.S. CHART: The Occasional Speculator’s updated performance chart, unlike many investment newsletters, is based on our actual portfolio. We have historically suffered considerable volatility in our results relative to the market because of our unique speculative approach. Thus we have undergone a considerable period where we under-performed versus the overall market (i.e. the S&P). In 2025 our focus on the silver miners is primarily responsible for the improvement in performance (as you can see) since spring. You can see this both in terms of growth in dollar value as well as regaining out-performance of the market since the beginning of 2024. Those readers interested in more information about the chart can ask me directly in the Comments section.
PLAYING THE SILVER SHORTS DESPERATION
In reviewing the sharp drop in both gold and silver as well as the silver miners, we conclude they are a prime example of the long term manipulation of not the price of actual physical gold and silver, but instead one more example of manipulating the price of the gold and silver in the COMEX futures markets. The COMEX prices are declining in importance compared to PHYSICAL gold and silver, as the actual, physical metals are drained from the west…including both Europe and the US…in favor of the Chinese, Russian, and Indian markets.
Now let me address the silver market with six (there are many more) bullish facts for silver:
Ed Steer thinks the bullion banks (like JP Morgan) are short $60 Billion worth of silver (go to minute 1:10):
The cost to lease physical silver has recently surged on the LBMA from 1% to 19% or more.
Andy Schectman on rising silver lease rate (go to minute 9:00):
Silver is cheap as a percent of gold. A gold move from $4000 to $5000 could well be accompanied by a silver move from $50 to $100.
Due to its industrial use, demand for silver for the last 6 years has outpaced supplies from the mines.
The recent sharp acceleration of the bull markets in both gold and silver makes those short silver extra desperate:
LINK to gold chart: https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M
and silver:
LINK to silver chart: https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/M
The percent of American investments in either gold or silver is historically LOW.
In summary, we believe that the drop in silver from its all time high on October 17 of $53 to $47 was :
Caused by the silver shorts
Will not last long
Represents a buying opportunity
We recommend buying silver miners: EXK @$8.09: SCZMF @$1.45: CDE @$18.65: GSVRF @$0.26.
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