Speculating on Five Illusions
Speculating on Five Illusions
What I'm buying, what I own, what I'm monitoring.
Playing off Illusion is one of the three factors that I use in assembling the pieces of a successful financial speculation, as readers of my book The Speculator’s Mosaic can attest. In the U.S. today, I am attempting to speculate by dealing with five illusions.
The corona virus lockdown continues to save lives.
Since 2015 America has become more racist.
The government combo (Fed money printing and lending on the one hand and Treasury massively borrowing and the-check-is-in-the-mail-for-everyone spending on the other) stabilizes and strengthens the economy.
All of the states (yes even Illinois) will muddle through the current recession with Federal bailouts as needed.
The reality of American life is well portrayed to the ½ of America that watches legacy media (CNN, NYT, Washington Post, MSNB, NPR, etc…).
The combination of so many major illusions will, among other things, threaten to reduce the respect for government’s ability to uphold the law but also paradoxically lure many investors into a state of dazed complacency. So how am I speculating with liquid assets given my belief that these five factors are illusory?
Although I am bearish on the stock market and the bond market, I have been buying two stocks:
the coal company Hallador (HNRG) @ 63 cents
the online small business lender OnDeck (ONDK @ 69 cents)
I own a third stock the filtration company Nephros (NEPH @ $8.20).
I am intrigued (though do not currently own):
the education company Aspen Group (ASPU @ $8.74).
as a bond market alternative, the high yielding REIT Annaly (NLY @ $6.30).
Golden Entertainment (GDEN @ $9.13) which I just started monitoring.
In the futures market, I have a long position in silver and a major position in the 98.75 2022 Eurodollar puts.
Finally, I monitor shorting the stock market (S&P futures @ 3100) and monitor buying the Australian dollar (@ 69 US cents).
To learn more about my journey as a speculator, read my book.
